History Lesson IV: The Modern Era

Salutations!

The Modern Era. We call it that because we know it very well. It is recent and all of us have lived during it. 200 years from now, it will be called something else. It will be the future of history. Historians will look back and ponder upon how we lived, what we did to occupy ourselves, and how we ever lived without the technology they will possess. History is a living concept. It has no fixed end or completion. It is constantly building and growing.

What will future historians say about the era 1918 to 2004? Will they see it as the evolution of a certain pattern that cumulates in an event yet unforseen? Will they call it a time of transition or even backwardness? Our lives are merely a drop in the ocean of the historic continuum. Be humbled, for our lives will most likely be forgotten when the history of our time is written in textbooks. We all have the opportunity, however, to help shape what will be written in those textbooks.

By the end of the Great War, our history had diverged from its path which was 3000 years in the making. No longer were we dependant on agriculture for subsistance. We were freed from the yoke of the soil. We had access to a world of resources and ideas due to the expansion of international intercourse. The old ideas of Empire were not seen as the objective and glory of a nation any longer, since the violence of the First World War ensured that empire created war, and war created misery and suffering. WWI was the first major TOTAL WAR, a type of conflict unique to human beings alone. Total war involved every element of a society, and put strenuous demands on labour and the civillian populous. It also disregarded the distinction between non-combatant and soldier. The death toll was catastrophic. It was not sweet and glorious to die for one's country. It was bitter, muddy, and painful. This reality was recognized during WWI more than any other war. It seems, too, that human life became cheaper, less regarded.

In the post-war years, things seemed to return to normal. The populations of the Western world wrestled social concessions from their governments, including the expansion of the franchise. With more people voting, politicians found new constituencies to manipulate in order to retain political power. This would have later implications. Meanwhile, in the East, Japan had conquered Korea, Manchuria (part of China), and a variety of islands in the Pacific.

The unjust provisions listed in the Treaty of Versailles (1919) ensured that Germany was ruined. The aim of Britain and France after WWI was to completly hinder Germany from ever becoming an economic or military power again. The destitution of Germany in the 1920's was paralleled only by the destruction wrought by the Great Depression. Like most problems, Germany's economic crisis was solved by effective leadership. Unfortunately, that came in the form of a FASCIST regime. Such regimes we call tyrranies because they deprive some or all of peoples' natural liberties. Spain and Italy also established fascist states. Russia, having resolved her revolution, was ruled by Stalin by 1929 with the death of Lenin. Although Russia's revolution had given birth to a communist state, it was in fact what we now call a STALINIST state, after Joseph Stalin. Stalinism and Fascism are the very same thing. Regargless of political spectrum, a dictatorial regime is a dictatorial regime. Both require concentrated control of every aspect of life from a single, non-elected official. Both tend to be militaristic, and both seek to limit or dismantle liberty to ensure the perpetuation of the totalitarian state. Any dissent was strictly untolerated, and non-conformists were often dissuaded by torture or death. Both were tyrranies.

America, at the same time, claimed to be 'isolationist'. The theme of isolationism in American history is nothing but an outright lie. I will expose the HYPOCRACY of the AMERICAN EMPIRE in another discussion. Woodrow Wilson, at the Paris Conference in 1919, had promulgated the LEAGUE OF NATIONS. Although the United States did not join, most other nations did. That, of course, meant states that were not colonies of others. The League of Nations was an utter failure. Like the UNTIED NATIONS, it did not have the strength, leadership, or resources to deter aggressors, topple tyrranies, or prevent war. Furthermore, it was just an aggrandizing club for the victors of WWI. When Germany and Japan decided to take unilateral military actions to further their own interests, the League did nothing. When Japan formally annexed most of China, the League actually sought justification for the attack by labelling it a 'stabilizing influence'. When Germany invaded Austria and Czechslovakia (itself a product of the 1919 treaty), the League's leaders sought 'peace in our time' by giving over these countries.

Naturally, Adolph Hitler and the Japanese parliament found these decisions encouraging. In 1939, Hitler tried to test the League again by invading Poland. By then, Britain and France had had enough. War was declared and France, as always, was instantly invaded. Japan struck Indonesia and Hong Kong. Only 21 years, and another major war had begun.

Three side notes.

Adolph Hitler wanted to be a painter. As an Austrian in Vienna, he pursued his goal. He never won acceptance for his art, so instead became an agitator against the government and condition of Germany. While in prison for his escapades, he wrote a book called Mein Kempf (My Journey) which amounted to a collection of insane ramblings.

Joseph Stalin originally wanted to be a preist. He was kicked out of his seminary (religious school) and began to publish subversive communist leadership. He took on the name Stalin (Man of Steel) as a pseudonym. Through clever tricks and outright murder, he made his way to the top of the Communist Party and succeeded Lenin.

That just goes to show you that you should always let people follow their dreams. Failing that, watch out for insane ramblings.

Finally, the Great Depression. In the 1920's capital was abundant in the form of easy credit. The amount of credit in the world's economies was rediculous. Governments then had no notion of FISCAL POLICY. The result was the inevitable slump of the business cycle. The Great Depression of 1929-1933 was particularly harsh because of this abundant credit. All of a sudden debts were increasing exponentially while jobs were disappearing. Standard economic practice at the time was to 'tighten the waistband' in hard times, and that meant shedding jobs and cutting wages. Inflation increased the value of money, and all of a sudden stocks were worthless. Depressions had occured in the 1870's and 1890's along the same lines and near to the same degree, except that an agricultural drought occured in Canada and the US at the same time as the stock market crash, and that the world economy had become more closely integrated and led by the US by 1929. The destitution caused by the Great Depression made many countries desperate for solutions. This explains why Germans, Russians, Italians, Spaniards, and Japanese were willing to appoint or support tyrants to their governments.

The approach to the depression in the US and Canada followed the teachings of John Maynard Keynes. Keynes suggested that government spending, financed by deficits, could encourage the movement of capital and consumer spending, and thus reinvigorate the economy. Franklin D. Roosevelt implemented this in his New Deal of 1933. It introduced programs to get the unemployed working on state infrastructure projects. Canada quickly followed suit, and deficit spending was discovered and implemented simultaneously in Sweden. Although the New Deal and its cousins would help, they did not solve the depression. One effective result, however, was to strengthen the US federal government.

The fascist approach was actually the exact same. Fascist governments sponsored massive military projects and infrastructure, and imposed tariffs to eliminate foreign competition and dependance on imports. This also got people working and spending, and in the case of all but Russia, kept Communists away from agitating the poor.

So arms build-ups, fascist governments, and a weak League of Nations all combined to create World War II. Although the Seven Year's War (1754-63) and the Revolutionary/Napoleonic Wars (1789-1815) were the first world wars, WWII was the first to involve non-Western nations directly, and the first such to be a total war. In this first truely global war, the ideaological battle between tyrrany and liberty was fought. It was not an imperial war, nor one exclusively for resources. Power and political-economic systems were at stake. In the end, the economic power of free capitalism, expressed in the industrial powerhouse of the United States, was the victor. State controlled capitalism was the victim. Oddly enough, victory was achieved with the assistance of Stalinist Russia.

Like Napoleon Bonaparte in 1812, Hitler made the mistake in 1941 of starting a war with Russia while at war with Britain. Russia employed the muskovite pattern as it had in 1812, which exchanged territory for time, time for the Russian winter to set in. A war on two fronts distracted resources and efforts and led to the defeat of Germany. Also like Napoleon, Hitler maintained a grand fleet of warships whose sole contribution to the war effort amounted to being sunk by the British.

The Japanese and German inititives were genious, and well executed in the beginning, but in the end it was a war of time. The increadible power of Britiain, Canada, and America to hold out and rapidly put out military machinery from their industrial complexes would in the end outpace Germany and Japan. The morale of Allied forces, who were raised voluntarily instead of conscripted, was matched only by the Japanese and their extraordinary devotion to the Imperial state. The naval might of the Anglo-American allaince ensured a steady flow of capital, men, munitions, and machines to the front lines of battle. Canadian warships were heavily employed in the escourt of massive convoys of supply ships to Europe. With the resources of the Americas, Australasia, and Russia, the tiny states of Germany and Japan could simply not produce enough instruments of war to compete.

A contributing factor to Germany's defeat is it's expenditure of resources on exterminating Jews. Had Hitler not spent so much time and military force to murder 6 million people, he might have been more successful. The Nazi Holocaust occured because Hitler was eager for a scapegoat during the Great Depression. In his book, mentioned earlier, he blamed Jews for Germany's economic and political woes. He sought to isolate them from the rest of the population and enclose them in walled ghettos. After the war, those that survived moved to Palestine to form Israel. Today the Jews in Israel are building a 'security perimeter' around Muslim Palestinian towns. How quaintly this wall resembles those built by Hitler.

In 1945 there was a new world order. The nuclear bomb was the final word in weapons that could destroy the world. And Europeans thought the crossbow would mean the death of all. For the first time in history, humanity had the technology to obliterate itself. Survivors wouldn't last long, because nuclear warfare would ensure that the planet was uninhabitable. Nuclear technology proliferated to Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Israel. Despite the expense of these weapons, there are currently enough world-wide to destroy earth several time over. Oh, and there are millions starving to death. Nuclear weapons, it was supposed, would act as a deterrant to major conflict.

The United Nations, successor to the League of Nations, is pretty much the same thing. It is still a club for the victors of WWII, expressed in the 'Security Council.' The Security Council is made up of Britain, France, the US, Russia, and China as permanant members. This is not an effective reflection of world power. The UN is still a weak organization dependant on resources from the major powers. Its leadership is ineffective. Its drive for human rights is powered by the HR Commission, which itself is riddled with member states who are the world's worst human rights offenders. UN Peacekeepers are simply the soldiers of poor states that are interested in loaning them for the money and weapons provided. The United States, the world's only superpower at the moment, hasn't paid its UN dues for years. President George W. Bush has exposed the weakness of the UN and exploited it. Is there really peace in our time?

Despite the deterrants of nuclear arms and multi-lateralism, war has continued to be part of our lives. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Kosovo, and Iraq II have been wars in our time. We just experience them in ABSTRACTION. Those of us far from the battlefield, often ignorant of the spelling of these very locations, only see these wars as filtered through our televisions. Westerners do not know the true suffering of war-ravaged nations. People die. In abstraction, they become statistics. In reality, that person was someone's lover, someone's parent, someone's child. Could you easily cope with the loss of such a person? Modern warfare has been sanitized for our viewing. Flashy words and fancy technology have removed the human element from war, or at least for rich countries.

The Cold War after 1945 was not at all as cold as it seemed. Korea, Vietnam, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Afghanistan, and countless other minor conflicts were fought. The only difference between this war and others was that it was fought by PROXY. Various groups within most nations had either Soviet or American support and these groups fought each other for the causes of Communism and Capitalism. Almost always, the outcome was fascism or Stalinism. American or Soviet support became so integrated, and the factions so hardlined, that the defeat of the other faction superseded all other objectives, including human liberties. The Americans and Russians were more than happy to support their allied dictators and disregard offences and crimes in order to render the competing ideology in that region or country. These proxy wars were the most suitable outlet for agression between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States. Both of these powers recognized that a war between them directly would result in a nuclear holocaust.

These proxy wars caused the installation of numerous tyrants, often over legitimately elected governments. They also caused millions of deaths, imprisonments, or missing persons. South and Central America are perfect examples of entire regions that suffered as a result of these proxy wars. Funnily enough, many dictators and tyrants that were installed by America would later have to be removed by them.

Between 1945 and 1975 a massive demographic event occurred. The return of soldiers and the prosperity generated by the industrial boom of the war period seemed to congeal to form an environment conducive to massive human reproduction. More families were having more children in rapid succession. My parents came from families of 4 and 5 children. This was the BABY BOOM. Interestingly, of these 9 relatives, only 4 sets of two children have been realized.

The generation born between 1945 and 1970 is the greatest single demographic spike in history, both absolutely and in real terms. It has been described as a pig travelling through the snake of time. This massive generation of people have shared common experiences and thus interests, and vote accordingly. They are largely responsible for the development of the comprehensive welfare state that covers the span of life 'from erection to resurrection.' I will cover more on the Baby Boom in a discussion called INTERGENERATIONAL INEQUALITY.

After 1945 an era of unprecidented economic boom occured. Normally after wars, depression sets in as manufacturing demands slow down. In the post WWII era, economic strength was perpetuated by government infrastructure programs, expansion of the public sector, and the continuance of military spending to 'fight' the Cold War. Prosperity made mass reproduction possible and sustainable. This 'golden age' lasted until the 1970's when the dream came crashing down. In response to US assistance to Israel during one of its wars with its Muslim neighbours, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, largely made up of Muslim nations) cut down their exports of oil. Immediately oil prices skyrocketed, and the price of everything else followed suit. Humanity had become dependant on oil for everything. We were, and are, SLAVES TO OIL. I will write on that subject later.

With increased prices comes an increased cost of living. With an increased cost of living came a demand for increased wages to counter it. Increasing prices and costs (inflation) immediately ate up higher wages, while economic stagnation had set in. This was earth's first experience with STAGFLATION, or stagnant growth with inflation. Of course, the governments of the world were big spenders in the 1940's, 50's, 60's, and 70's and had accumulated massive debts. Governments had few options in dealing with the crisis. After 1979 recession and it's corresponding economic effects set in.

Unions and the working class believed that salvation would be found in higher wages and increased government spending. Unfortunately both of these increased the amount of money flowing in the market, which made currencies cheaper. So dollars, yens, pounds, francs, and marks bought less and less. With an increase in money supply, money became cheaper. Governments around the world took three options:

1: The US way: Reagan (US), Thatcher (UK), and Mulrooney (Canada) broke stagflation on the backs of the poor. They recklessly slashed government spending, eliminated programs, forced pay cuts, and resisted strikes relentlessly. The result was that working class people's real wages had decreased for the first time in a century, and government programs for them had disappeared. Meanwhile, corporations somehow emerged wealthier and more powerful.

2: The Continental way: France, Spain, Germany, and Italy all thought they could spend their way through these troubled times. They increased programs and spending, and allowed the working class to extract massive concessions from employers. As a result, these countries now have among the highest labour costs in terms of wages and benefits, and massive debts that still exist today. These countries are not investor friendly and jobs have been disappearing. The government response to this: squeeze companies that still remain so that their employees can get higher wages and securities. Work in these countries is great, if you can get it.

3: The Scandinavian way: Sweden, Denmark, and Finalnd sought to solve the problem through solidarity. All aspects of society had to work together to end the recession. This meant wage cuts for all. Denmark imposed a 9% paycut across the board. Some programs were cut, but alternative programs such as reeducation and job placement were enhanced to help those displaced reintegrate into more adaptable industries. The collective experience strengthened these nations and today they are amongst the most efficient producers in terms of productivity and labour value.

By 1990 the recession was long gone, but how each country dealt with it would have far reaching effects. One thing remained in common: all nations were still dependant on Middle-East oil.

Sometime between 1989 and 1993 the world underwent a technical revolution. Computers and microchips were not new at the time, but somewhere between these dates personal computers became accessable, affordable, and simplefied. The average human could afford to buy a computer and did not have to learn much to use it. Workplaces began to implement the PC, increasing exposure. The internet appeared and connected people around the world. Through the 90's businesses and people became dependant on computers. New ways to create, store, and transfer information on computers developed. The DIGITAL or INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION had begun. This revolution may have the same long term effecrts as did the Industrial Revolution.

Meanwhile, in the 1980's and 1990's, the Pacific Rim was well on its way to development. Japan was rebuilt as was Europe after the war with US money. The Korean War helped Japan by acting as an industrial and military base for the US, as did South Korea in the Vietnam War. Now countries such as Taiwan, South Korea, the Phillipines, Indonesia, and India are all major manufacturing nations. They are also competitors on the world stage for manufacturing jobs. Asian competition has caused worry for Western workers, who fear that jobs will go to these lower-wage Pacific nations. This is part of the process of GLOBALIZATION, which I will discuss later.

Asian nations seem to be developing and industrializing along the same lines as Europe, Japan, and North America did in the 19th century. Cheap labour attracts capital investment to mass produce goods at a low price to sell to domestic and foreign markets. Human rights are at first dismal, but gradually grow better with wealth and the collectivization of society. South Korea is a perfect example. A colony in 1944 of Japan, and in 2004 an industrial giant and among the top 15 richest countries in the world. It has had its share of brutal dictators, along with a constant antagonism with its northern counterpart. South Koreans now benefit from a stable democracy. Taiwan is another example. In 1949 when Mao Zedong's Communist Party drove out the Republican Party, Chiang Kai-shek settled on the small Chinese island of Taiwan. Since then the island has developed into a strong democracy with an industrial-capitalist tradition. China still disputes that it owns the island, but its inhabitants are uninterested in unifying with the mainland under the current circumstances.

China is one of the world's largest manufacturers. Everything seems to be made in China these days. High-tech industries have moved there, producing a wide variety of electronics. Shoes, clothes, furniture, toys, and even food are exported from China en mass. China also has a very poor human rights record as of 2004, but that looks to be changing slowly. The country is shaping up to be a strong contender on the global stage. China in the future may be the world's foremost economic and military power, replacing the United States.

With competition from the Pacific Rim taking its toll, European and North American manufacturing began experiencing hardships in the 80's and 90's. The process of outsourcing became very contentious and very real to the industrial sector. Western economies have changed as a result. Their primary focus has moved from manufacturing to services, finance, and information techonolgy (IT). This diversification of the economy has further displaced manufacturing jobs which in the 1960's and 70's looked very secure. The current plight of the working class can be summed up thus:

1: Asian compeition. Lower wages in these countries and increaing free trade have allowed Asian nations to make and export products to the developed world for prices lower than if they were manufactured within the developed world. This also has the benefit of assisting in the development of Asian economics, but results in jobs moving 'offshore'. As long as Asian products are cheaper and of relatively equal quality, consumers in the West will continue to assist in this process.

2: Labour Unions. Unions since the 50's have sought to raise wages and comitting companies to long term pension and health benefits. The long term costs of these commitments, and wages that are not globally competitive, have resulted in a loss of interest in manufacturing in North America and Europe. Investors and capitalists would rather produce in competitive or low wage countries in order to deliver a product at a lower price to the end consumer, which results in attracting a larger market share and simultaneously maximizes profits (which happens to be the goal of capitalists). As the baby boomers start to retire between 2005 and 2035, they will collect these pension and health benefits, which will become a drain on corporate finances. Some companies in the airline industry have already begun to reneg on these promises in order to remain competitive. By demanding high wages and long term benefits, unions hurt their companies financially which makes them less nimble and adaptable. Many corporate pension programs are underfunded (which is the fault of management) and may result in less payouts than promised. Even though unions have their good and useful aspects, they lack moderation.

3: Technological Change. With computers, robots, and machines advancing at their current pace, very few jobs will require hands-on work in the future, particularly in manufacturing. Unions and the working class resist technological change, which in the long run increases input costs and decreases efficiency. Their rationale is that a job should not be replaced by a machine. If a company finds it cannot remain competitive using its current labour input, it will downsize or go overseas, resulting in the loss of all jobs.

4: Aging Society. The baby boom is a numerous generation and it's getting older. As this massive demographic blip gets older, it becomes interested in two things: pensions and health care. These are the two things that will perpetuate the generation and give them a longer than usual lifespan. As they get older, they need more healthcare, which helps them survive to collect more pensions, which helps them live in comfort until the next medical operation. Pensions and healthcare are expensive, and companies that want to be competitive cannot afford to pay thousands of pensions for 20 years or more while simultaneously paying for the healthcare of the same group that is collecting pensions.

5: Taxes. When companies cannot pay pensions or healthcare, they look to offload the responsibility onto the state. Workers are more than happy to extract their benefits from the nation. To pay for these programs, the state has to raise taxes. A high tax environment may influence investors or current companies to leave one state for another of lower taxes.

6: Economic Change. Western economies have shed many of their manufacturing jobs in favour of exploring new sectors, mainly IT, finance, and services. It seems to be part of the natural evolution of economic systems. As the world economy moved from agriculture to manufacturing in the 19th century, so will it move from manufacturing to IT, finance, and services in the 21st.

Your average capitalst (although we are all capitalists in some way or another) is a biological, predictable being. They will seek for themselves the greatest gain possible from their current stock of capital (be it monetary, intellectual, or physical). Capitalists are not to blame for the erosion of working class jobs. They are just doing what they do. If you think an alternative economic system is in order, I will defray your beliefs in a later discussion called CAPITALISM AND ITS ALTERNATIVES. So who is to blame for the 'destruction' of the working class? Changing economic nature, international development, and unions. Like the rural farmer, the manufacturer will have to give way to a new economic order.

The effects of the 1990's and early 2000's are difficult to interpret. We are still living them out. We won't know their full outcome for some years. I will offer a few observations that may have future significance.

1: The Digital Revolution: We have discussed this already, but it bears note that the current rate of technological change has begun to accellerate exponentially, as opposed to geometrically, in the last 50 years. How far this revolution can go is literally bound only by our imaginations.

2: Democracy?: With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, a whole bundle of states will experience nationhood as they never have before. Two political models have emerged amongst these states: democracy and Stalinism. As Ukraine's election is currently being debated, we shall see in the next few years how these models work themselves out in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Asia itself, strong democratic states like India, Korea, and Taiwan are becoming the norm, which funnily enough have been strengthening with the increase of wealth that development has brought to them. Democratic processes have returned to South and Central America after decades of brutal dictatorships. South East Asia is coming online with democratic struggles. So that leaves the Middle East and Africa as two very large areas of relatively weak democratic traditions. There are exceptions in each, however. Finally, the American (thinly veild imperialist) drive for exporting 'democracy' began to take violent steps in 2001. There are precidents prior to this, but the result has largely been to establish single party 'democracies' or mere puppet states. If this trend continues in Afghanistan and Iraq, then the true spirit of democracy will be defeated. Democracy has to be discovered locally, not imposed from afar. It must be born from struggle and will, not by conquering. Which countries will develop democracies? Which will endure tyrrany? Can America truely be called a democracy anymore in the face of a stolen 2000 election and extremely polarized constituents? Watch these areas closely.

3: The Baby Boomers: This generation will most likely impoverish rich countries. It has succeeded in polluting the earth, raping the world of natural resources, and creating the farce we now know as SUBURBIA (which I will discuss in another chapter). It will also most likely succeed in extracting such high pension and healthcare benefits so as to make paupers out of the young and fit, just to squeeze another wretched year of life out of a frail and aging body. We may very well become indentured servents to pay for their retirements.

4: Oil: We are entirely dependant on oil. Not only is it a fuel, it also makes plastic, fertilizers, pesticides, industrial lubricants, preservatives, ink, wax, rubber, film, cosmetics, vitamins, and detergents. Petrochemicals are used in almost every daily activity you experience. What happens when oil becomes scarce, and eventually runs out? Oil production will peak between 2000 and 2010. After that, production will slow down and decrease as less oil is available. The laws of diminishing returns stipulates that as a resource becomes harder to find, it also becomes more expensive and as a result costs more and more to extract, until it becomes physically or financially impossible to gather more. At the current rate of consumption of oil, and given that consumption rises by a certain percentage each year, demand will soon outstrip supply. This will result in higher and higher oil prices, which in turn makes everything more expensive (as we saw in the 1979 recession). Between 2003 and 2004 we saw the first stage of this process. As more countries, particularly China, continue to develop, they too will require more oil, increasing world demand exponentially. Reserves are dwindling.

5: War: Remember how I said "wars are fought for two reasons: ideas and resources"? Yah, items 2 and 4 above. The instigators of future wars will likely be the United States, China, and Russia. They are the largest economies by far and demand the most resources. Meanwhile, wars of ideas will rage in the Middle East and Africa.

6: Space: Space has scientific, economic, and military value. The use of space for scientific and economic ventures is productive and I strongly advocate it. However, the use of space as the 4th battleground (after land, sea, and air) is controversial and technically illegal under various agreements between the USSR and the US signed in the 1970's. Reagan's "Star Wars" project, revived under Bush Jr., seems likely to go ahead as long as Republican administrations control Congress. Star Wars seeks to put satellites in space for intelligence and missle defence, but those applications can easily be turned to spying (both domestic and international) and missle offence. American docrine seems to be geared towards a US monopoly of space. The uses and ownership of space in the future will have profound concequences.

7: The World Economy: Free trade and globalization, enemies to socialists of the Naomi Klein sort, are progressing whether we like it or not. Globlal free trade was first tried in the 19th century. Britain's maritime and economic supremacy allowed it to influence many nations into free trade agreements which actually benefitted both sides. Britain got resources and markets, while other nations received British capital and expertise to help them develop. It forced industry on both sides to be very competitive and efficient. The globalization and free trade we think of today are tinged by the writings of left wing agitators and those displaced by one or several of the conditions I mentioned in my discussion of the plight of the working class. Globalization and free trade are not inherently evil. Unfortunately they come in part of a package which also includes American cultural, moral, and social imperialism while further aggrivating a few working class plight conditons. More on globalization and free trade in CAPITALISM AND ITS ALTERNATIVES. The response to and effectiveness of globalization and free trade will have a profound effect on the constitution of a world economy.

8: The Junior Complex: George Bush Junior, or 'dubyah' as he is sometimes called, represents a new challenge to the future. Depending on the years 2004-2008, Bush just might be the ruin of us all. Worst case scenario: expect a return of church-state alliances (read: moral tyrrany and the stuff of the middle ages), aggressive oil - sorry, democracy and freedom - wars, a weakened US economy (and its resulting world-wide effects) and increased unilateralism on the part of the US. The divide between the world and America will worsen as a result. Watch for wars in Iran (oil) and North Korea (strategic base against China), as well as a proliferation of America's already extensive military base system which stands at between 300-400 worldwide as of 2004. The US example of tyrrany might influence other countries, and harden extremists and even moderates in the Middle East. The US might move to one of those confounded one party democracies through electoral fraud and reform, resulting in the disappearance of civil liberties. This program has begun with the Patriot Act, passed after the September 11th, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centre by Islamic extremists. The response to terrorism has been somewhat childish, and has resulted in a constant state of FEAR of a perceived terrorist threat, real or imagined. Like Rome, the US may transform from republic to empire.

For more on the future, watch for my upcoming chapter on MODELS OF THE FUTURE.

So we have gone from 10,000 BCE to November 2004. Although there is much more to tell, this should give you an adequate framework to understand what I will reveal to you. I have mentioned future topics that will arise sooner or later in their own chapters. I will include a HISTORICAL APPENDIX to add anything that I might have missed in these history lessons. I hope I have raised some questions about history, politics, economics, and society that will make you think and criticize traditional interpretations.

For now, I wish you all fair winds and following seas.